In early Asian trading on Thursday, U.S. WTI crude oil rose 0.3% to $65.12 per barrel, while Brent crude futures climbed 0.2% to $67.80 per barrel. In the previous trading session, both major benchmark prices had gained nearly 1%, partially recovering from the 13% slump earlier this week.

The EIA inventory report showed that U.S. commercial crude oil stockpiles fell by 5.8 million barrels to 415.1 million barrels for the week ending June 20, significantly more than the expected drop of 800,000 barrels, indicating robust demand. However, with the Middle East situation still unclear, the market remains cautious about a potential ceasefire deal between Iran and Israel. Additionally, speculation that OPEC+ might increase production earlier than planned has also attracted attention. According to the Bitop market analysis team, WTI prices may gradually return to the $60–65 per barrel range.

After U.S. President Trump announced a ceasefire on Tuesday, Brent crude closed at its lowest since June 10, while U.S. crude closed at its lowest since June 5, as Middle East supply risks eased. Trump welcomed the "swift end" to the Iran-Israel conflict and stated he would seek a commitment from Iran to abandon its nuclear program during talks next week. He added that while the U.S. has not abandoned its “maximum pressure” campaign, it may show flexibility on oil export restrictions to help Iran rebuild its economy.

The Bitop analysis team believes that although oil prices have rebounded due to the sharp inventory decline, geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production policy remain key variables shaping future price trends. In the absence of a strong catalyst, prices may consolidate narrowly around $65 per barrel. Market participants await further guidance from OPEC+ on production policy, which will help reassess the oil market supply-demand balance. If oversupply eases, oil prices could gradually edge higher. In the near term, attention should be paid to the progress of U.S.-Iran negotiations and any changes in U.S. sanctions on Iran, as well as the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting on July 6, which will decide whether to continue accelerating production quota recovery. A clearer stance from the Middle East and OPEC+ would lead the market to reprice geopolitical risk premiums.

On the daily chart, the mid-term trend is still upward, testing the $78 level. Despite a large bearish candlestick, the price action has not broken below the moving average system, which continues to provide support. The overall trend remains bullish. However, the MACD has formed a bearish crossover above the zero line, suggesting weakening bullish momentum. Oil prices may enter a high-level consolidation phase in the medium term.

On the 1-hour chart, the short-term trend continues to decline slightly, with limited downside movement. Prices have touched a low near $64. The MACD has crossed upward below the zero line, indicating weakening bearish momentum and strengthening bullish momentum. The intraday trend may continue downward, but with signs of a potential rebound.

Technical Indicators: The MACD red bars are shrinking, showing weakening momentum. The RSI is in a slightly bullish neutral zone, suggesting that although bullish momentum is recovering, a strong breakout remains elusive. If the price falls below the $65 support level, it could return to the $60–65 range. Conversely, a breakout above $66.50 with volume could test the previous high at $68. Overall, the short-term WTI technical outlook is neutral to slightly bullish, but a fundamental catalyst is needed to break key resistance.

For today’s crude oil trading strategy, it is recommended to focus primarily on short-selling on rallies, with buying on pullbacks as a secondary approach.Key resistance is seen at the $67.5–$68.5 range.Key support is seen at the $63.0–$62.0 range.

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